There’s an old saying in baseball that good pitching beats good hitting, but it overlooks a crucial detail: the team with superior pitching still needs to score runs.
The Blue Jays have had enough pitching to be World Series contenders for the past two years. However, their hitting has fallen short, meaning one of the franchise’s best starting rotations isn’t seeing the success it deserves.
Chris Bassitt voiced what many were thinking after Wednesday’s loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, acknowledging that Jays starters have to be exceptional because that’s “just the reality of our team.” Even when the pitchers perform well, it often isn’t enough to secure a win.
Since May 13, Jays starters have a 2.78 ERA, ranking fourth in the majors, yet they have gone just 10-8. In contrast, the third-ranked Phillies, with a 2.69 ERA, have gone 12-2. The Jays’ overall record is 14-13, while the Phillies stand at 17-9.
The disparity in outcomes despite strong pitching has been more pronounced recently. Over their last nine games, the Jays’ rotation has a 1.24 ERA but only a 5-4 record, turning elite performances into mediocre results.
Consider these points:
– Yusei Kikuchi has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of his 14 starts, yet the Jays have won only five of those games. Between April 27 and June 1, they didn’t win any of his starts.
– Bassitt has given up one run in his past 13 innings, but the Jays lost his last two starts. Since early May, he has a 2.25 ERA, with the team going just 4-4 in his outings.
– José Berríos ranks ninth in the American League with a 2.93 ERA but has a 5-5 record. His counterpart, Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon, with the same ERA, is 9-2.
– Kevin Gausman, the only starter receiving consistent run support, is 5-1 with a 3.33 ERA since April 28. Kikuchi, with a comparable 3.50 ERA, is under .500 at 2-3.
Despite last year’s staff earning praise, this season’s starters have been even better. After 68 games in 2023, the starters had a 4.11 ERA, finishing third at 3.85. This season, they stand at 3.62.
The blame for the Jays’ subpar record lies with the offense. The lineup wasn’t good enough last year and has worsened. In 2023, they ranked 16th with 4.55 runs per game; this year, they’re 25th with 3.90 runs per game and a .366 slugging percentage, the lowest since 1981.
A positive note is that poor run support hasn’t buried the Jays in the standings. While an AL East title and the first wild card are out of reach, the second or third wild card spots are still possible.
This scenario is reminiscent of a year ago. On June 13, 2023, the Jays were 1½ games behind the third wild card spot, trailing two teams. This year, the deficit is three games, with two teams in their way.
Bassitt’s frustration was evident when he spoke to reporters in Milwaukee, reflecting the general sentiment. The lack of run support has weighed on him, as almost every pitch feels high leverage due to the absence of stress-free innings dating back to 2023. Despite this, the top four pitchers have stayed healthy and performed well, unlike many of their teammates.
Bassitt didn’t speak for the entire clubhouse or intentionally call out the hitters, but his comments resonated with the broader issue. The Jays’ pitching staff has excelled, but the rest of the roster has fallen short, a problem identified outside the front office a year ago.
This is why Jays supporters are so frustrated. This team should be performing better. The rotation is playoff-caliber and could compete in any best-of-seven series, with just enough quality arms in the bullpen to make it work when healthy.
What’s lacking are quality at-bats and home runs. Good pitching might beat good hitting, but as the last two years have shown, it doesn’t matter if a bad lineup makes mediocre pitchers look good too.
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